Personnel Analysis

At this time restructuring is not recommended. Disney has undergone constant refinement to its organizational structure and hiring processes. Recently Disney streamlined its operations by cutting duplicate positions created from the acquisitions over the past few years. In addition, it is still recovering from the large amount of layoffs due to the previous recession and domestic economic instability. With the planned growth, Disney will need to expand its employment force to cover the new areas. Currently Walt Disney World employs sixty thousand people including, full time, hourly and seasonal personnel to run and maintain operations. It is recommended that the newly built themed areas be staffed primarily utilizing part time cast members. In addition, Disney needs to look into the work environment to maintain cast loyalty. A improved internal working environment leads to improved employee relations, retention and the minimizing of competitors luring trained employees away.

nobmp

Disney should maintain its current methodology shown above. Offering excellent career opportunity with benefits and training will be the keys to hiring the quality Cast Members Disney requires. Offering tuition reimbursement will attract college students to fill these hourly roles. Aligning the types of students for future roles is another aspect of the overall strategy. These Cast Members can be the future Imagineers and leaders of Disney. In addition, free park admission and merchandise discounts aid in Cast Member retention. Maintaining current pay scales and grades is recommended. It is not believed at this time that increasing hourly pay rate benefits productivity as shown in the graph below:

phys org

Source:(phys.org)

Business needs is estimating the need of two thousand additional cast member for growth initiatives at a cost of approximately 20 Million dollars. The increase in labor cost is easily set off by newly generated park revenues from Star Wars Land, Avatar and Disney Spring estimated to eclipse 300 million dollars. Substandard personnel will continue to be monitored based on the current point system. Garnishing violation points for issues regarding performance, attendance and motivation. The performance of the cast members will be monitored versus a determined expectation and metric utilizing automatic notification and dashboard to monitor improvement. These dashboards will be similar to the one shown below:

data-ink

Source:(Data-Ink)

Termination is non-negotiable when an employer reaching a point threshold determined by their position. Points can be reduced with additional training and improvement. This allows Disney to legally and swiftly maintain a quality labor force with minimal weakness.

References: 

Data-ink. HR Dashboard. Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://data-ink.com/?p=32

Innotour.com. Disney World’s managerial innovations. Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://www.innotour.com/innovationCases/2010/10/disney-world%E2%80%99s-managerial-innovations/

Levy, Thomas. California’s low-wage workers now earn less than in 1979. Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://phys.org/news/2015-04-california-low-wage-workers.html

Growth Analysis

It is forecast that Walt Disney parks will experience a substantial increase in crowd levels over the next 5 years as we have seen a trend in rising International visitors and higher levels of loyalty from previous and future guests. The acquisition of Lucas Films and the Star Wars franchise has reinforced Disney as the number one vacation destination in the world.

attendance growth

Source: (Statista)

The graph above displays that after several years of flat attendance, the growth trend has begun spurred on by improved domestic economics and unemployment rates. Customer demand is forecasted to increase exponentially year to year over the next 5 years. Consumer confidence in Disney and its offerings is also growing once again. Guest experience and reviews have gained a large boost from the recent addition of the RFID enabled Magic Bands. The improved reputation and experience will create a larger population of return guests particularly in the United States. The consumer satisfaction levels are shown below:

sentiment

Source :(Likefolio)

Unfortunately, Social data mining has confirmed the belief the new attractions at Universal Studios leveraging Harry Potter are drawing consumer attention. Social popularity for Disney has dropped as shown in the following display:

3yearDisneyDataEngagement

Source: (Infinigraph)

Currently, the parks are reaching capacity at an alarming rate and regularity. The guest experience will start to suffer if attendance continues to climb. Scenes as pictured below are becoming more common and is recommended that they are addressed.

Duo1

It is recommended that current growth initiatives to expand the parks continue as originally planned. With 20% undeveloped Disney owned land in Orlando, Disney has the available resources to build large additions and expansions on park offerings increasing capacity, revenue and guest satisfaction. Utilizing the popularity of the Star Wars brand along with the upcoming films, Star Wars Land would make for a strong crowd draw in Hollywood Studios. This in turn would draw attention from the recent Harry Potter expansion in Universal Studios. In addition, the planned expansions of Animal Kingdom (Avatar based) and reimagining of Downtown Disney (Disney Springs) will also help Disney alleviate some of the crowd issues as well as generate new revenue and improve on the ability to compete with Universal Studios.

In addition, our top competitors, Universal Studios is planning an expansion of their own in an attempt to steal Disney market share. While early in their planning phases, locations and land acquisitions make their intentions quite apparent.

duo3

Currently the Walt Disney Company is the world known leader in the entertainment industry. However, demand is pushing its capacity to the limit making it more difficult to deliver the experience Walt himself had envisioned. This combined with continued aggressive growth and popularity of our competitors reassures that the Walt Disney Company needs to invest in expansion of its theme parks and venues. The company must position itself now for the push of our competitors if we are too continue revenue and market share growth.

References:

Doctor Disney, (2013). The closing phases for Walt Disney World Capacity. Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://www.doctordisney.com/2013/05/23/doctor-disney-explains-the-closing-phases-for-walt-disney-world-capacity/

Infinigraph, 3-year Disney Post Volume vs Engagement. Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://blog.infinigraph.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/3yearDisneyDataEngagement.png

InsideUniversal. (2012) Universal expansion. Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://insideuniversal.net/2012/12/rumor-universal-to-acquire-golf-course/

Likefolio. Likefolio field notes, Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://41.media.tumblr.com/f4fa0a3127045ec26b15af02237d4960/tumblr_inline_ntn6vjIR7N1qfslfl_1280.png

New Year’s Crowd, Image Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://m.cfnews13.com/content/news/articles/cfn/2013/12/30/theme_parks_packed/_jcr_content/contentpar/articleBody/image.img.jpg/1388523505744.jpg

OrlandoUnited,(2012). Universal Resort Expansion? Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://forums.orlandounited.com/threads/universal-resort-expansion.7114/page-3

Statista. (2015) Attendance at the Magic Kingdom theme Park. Retrieved September 20, 2015, from http://www.statista.com/statistics/232966/attendance-at-the-walt-disney-world-magic-kingdom-theme-park/

Bayesian Paradigm

An uncertainty that has not been discussed is the geographical location of the winners. Using the regional data presented earlier, we can utilize a Bayesian paradigm to determine the probability of the region the winner is located in given the category selected. Another interesting analysis is the probabilities of winning by region. We do not know from where a randomly sampled guest from the eligibility pool is from. Using the information from the regional breakdown we can determine the probabilities of grand prize distribution. Knowing the probability of eligible guest winning per region as below:

  • P(NE) – .0737
  • P(NW) – .0232
  • P(SE) – .6368
  • P(SW) – .1926
  • P(C) – .0737

We can calculate the odd of a randomly selected winner being from a particular region as detailed in the following spreadsheet.

baysian regional

The results above show that the most likely winners will be chosen from the South East region which complements the reginal data as the South East is the strongest member location.

 

Reference:

Mostad, Petter. Basic Bayesian Ideas. Retrieved September 13, 2015, from http://www.math.chalmers.se/Stat/Grundutb/GU/MSA100/H08/BayesStatisticsHandouts.pdf

Lottery Analysis

During the promotion, 3 trips to the Aulani Resort in Hawaii will be given away at random to four of the invited guests. The following winning percentages have been calculated for the different eligibility categories.

  • Annual pass holders only – 53%
  • DVC Owners – 32%
  • Guests with both the above – 16%

Based on the above, any guest holding an annual pass will have a (53+16) 69% chance of winning a trip while DVC members will have a (32+16) 48%.

A couple of unpredictable factors can affect the outcome of the promotion. First is the actual RSVPs that are received for the event. This will change the total population and effect the chances of winning. Secondly is the population representation that responds. These factors can substantially effect the predicted outcomes. As well.

Discrimination will not be an issue for the event as the population is being controlled by membership records for annual passes and vacation club. Only these guests will be invited to enter regardless of demographic including level of membership, age, sex, race or location. There are no other external factors influencing the data.

Disney may consider limiting one Grand prize to each of the categories in the eligible population. This would alter the chances of winning greatly. In the current plan, Annual Pass holders have a better than 50% chance of winning the trips which may appear unfair. The adjusted probabilities of winning are shown in the Table below removing the previous guest type upon winning.

second prize with group exclusion

  • Event A is an Annual Pass holder winning the first draw.
  • Event B is a Disney Vacation Club Owner winning the first draw.
  • Event C is a Disney Vacation Club Owner with an Annual Pass winning the first draw.

Selected Sampling

Recently, many of Disney’s competitors in the industry have been going through legality issues in regards to promotional activities biasing men. Disney is no exception. According to the 2014 Park visitor breakdown, the probability of a random selection being female is 33.1 million per 62.3 million which is 52% of total park visitation. This is depicted in the below plot as generated by Tableau.

sex breakdown total population

In terms of the proposed promotion, the spreadsheet below shows the breakdown of guests eligible for the promotion. Based on this data, the probability of a woman being selected for a Grand prize is 250,000 out of 950,000 or 26% which is half of the general probability of female guests specified earlier. This is mainly due to the large number of male pass holders as compared to females. A further categorical breakdown for the prizes going to a female versus male are:

 

 

Type of Guest Male Chance of Winning Female Change of Winning Total Chance of Winning
Annual Passholder (.4/.95)         42% (.1/.95)         11% 53%
DVC Owner (.2/.95)         21% (.1/.95)         11% 32%
DVC + Annual Pass (.1/.95)         11% (.05/.95)         5% 16%

 

 

Target Customers

To have a successful event that drives sales for both Vacation Club Ownership and Annual Pass membership, Disney must invite an effective group of possible clientele. This event will be open to Vacation club owners, Annual pass holders, and those owning both being given the option to bring family and friends to the event as well. In addition, Cast members will not be eligible to attend the event or enter the contest.

The breakdown of guest types visiting the park in the previous year is shown in the table below:

Visitor Breakdown

Since we are limiting the event to Annual Pass Holders, Disney Vacation Club owners or both and excluding Cast members, the event will be open 950,000 guests located throughout the United States. Further analysis of the structure of this guest subset is shown in the following data:

Regional Breakdown

Holding two separate events in both the Walt Disney World in Florida and Disneyland resort in California would allow Disney to target the largest consumer base. This decision is supported by the geographic breakdown of the eligible participants as generated by Tableau.

Reginal Graph

Eligible Promotional population by region

Utilizing already existing convention center accommodations at both locations would be a considerable cost savings. The worst case total cost of this event is estimated to run approximately 2 million dollars with the following breakdown:

  • Convention Centers build up and presentation – $225,000
  • Convention Center Bookings – $250,000
  • Gift Bags for all invited guests values at $20 each – $1,000,000
  • Food and Beverage – $200,000
  • Labor : $225,000
  • Aulani Vacation Packages (3 total) = $100,000

The price for the event is reasonable and will easily be recouped by Vacation club membership alone.   Outside of the immediate revenue, both the annual pass and Vacation club create predictable recurring revenue. In the case of the Vacation Club that is over the span of several years. Estimated worst case revenue at the events is nearly $13,000,000 as follows.

  • 5,000 Premium Annual passes at $600 a piece – $3,000,000
  • 500 Vacation Club Memberships averaging 150 points at $130 a point – $9,750,000

 

 

Promotional Event

Annual-Passholder-Welcome-and-Magnet

Source: (DisneyDining.com)

An important and valued customer to Disney is its Annual Passholders. As returning guests, they represent recurring income and excellent brand ambassadors. Simply put, they are the seeds of a growing revenue. To reward current Passholders and attract new ones Disney wants to host a family fun event at several locations throughout the United States for its current and prospective passholders to enjoy while being introduced to new Annual Pass perks and benefits and the promote the Disney Vacation Club.

aulani-resort-exterior-and-pool-area

Source: (resorts.disney.go.com)

During the event, guests will learn about newly introduced spa and vacation discounts being offered to passholders as well as being given a chance to win a trip to the Disney Aulani vacation club resort in Hawaii. Attendance of the event will not be mandatory to have a chance of winning a Grand Prize. An invited participant will be required to RSVP online to validate the entry. This event is a great way to expand the membership of the Annual Passholders customer base driving recurring revenue and upsell the Disney Vacation Club which is yet another profitable recurring revenue for the organization.

DVCuntitled

Source: (Allears.net)

 

References:

Blasingame, Alex. (2015) 5 Reasons Disneyland Doesn’t Want More Annual Passholders. Retrieved September 12, 2015, from http://www.mousemonthly.com/5-reasons-disneyland-doesnt-want-more-annual-passholders/

 

 

Expansion Recommendation

The India marketplace is the most promising for the decades to come. It is very difficult to ignore the growth potential. According to an article by Ravi Natu posted at startupoverseas.co.uk, “Economy forecasts paint India as the fifth largest consumer market in 2025.” The middle class in India is made up of over 300 million people. With a plentiful amount of skilled and lower cost unskilled laborers, it is an economically sound solution for Disney to entertain.

Disney has a strong foothold in e-commerce already.  In addition, focusing on apparel and Disney merchandise would allow for a strong start with a further growth potential upon the introduction of culturally specific clothing.mickey India

One of the largest risk factors will be the differing cultures and business etiquettes.  Taking this into consideration and offering merchandise suitable for the Indian culture is the first step to a successful expansion. Utilizing Mumbai for operations and warehousing gives Disney available skilled workforce and infrastructure to reduce the barriers to starting. The question is not whether or not to expand into the India market. It is when, where and how.  There is no question that this is an opportunity that should not be ignored.                                                                                                  Source: disneyandmore

References:

Brown, Mayer. India: Thinking Outside The BPO: Knowledge Process Outsourcing to India. Retrieved September 3, 2015, from http://www.mondaq.com/india/x/51196/Outsourcing/Thinking+Outside+The+BPO+Knowledge+Process+Outsourcing+To+India

 Misra, Amit (2012). E-commerce in India: Consumer Interest went up by 128%. Retrieved September 4, 2015, from http://dazeinfo.com/2013/01/29/e-commerce-in-india-consumers-interest-went-up-by-128-in-2012-report/

Natu, Ravi. Why Expand to India? Retrieved September 6, 2015, from http://www.startupoverseas.co.uk/expanding-a-business-in-india/entering-the-market.html

Target Area Analysis

Since India is very large. You decided to focus on a smaller territory or a certain population. Where in India do you recommend to upper management? Why? Provide visualization [Hint: Use scatter plot, geographical map, regional maps, etc.] to demonstrate your analyses.

The size of India is a very intimidating aspect of expansion. Choosing the correct location to go to needs to be based on where the Metropolitan cluster s are located. According to a McKinsey and Company study,

“Companies considering a granular pan-India play could target metropolitan clusters. We expect that just 49 of them (some 183 districts) will account for about 77 percent of India’s incremental GDP, 72 percent of its consuming-class households, and 73 percent of its income pool from 2012 to 2025. They are therefore appropriate for companies looking to expand into areas where access to basic infrastructure does not pose a binding constraint” (McKinsey.com, 2014).

SVGZ_MGI_InsightsIndia_exV2_2

mumbaiMumbai stands out as primary locations for successfully gaining a foothold for future revenue growth. It is an entertainment, fashion and commercial hub. In addition, Mumbai is served by one of the largest regional International airports and seaport allowing for efficient merchandise and supply logistics. With already existing industrialization, difficulty with infrastructure and technology is minimized.

Quantitative Analysis

A further deep dive into the past 5 years of retail apparel growth in India makes it apparent that this market is a preferred choice for expansion into. The figure below displayed the India apparel sales as a percentage of total e-commerce sales for the past 60 months. It seems common that reasonable to expect this percentage to fall between 20 to 35 percent.

.histogram