Selected Sampling

Recently, many of Disney’s competitors in the industry have been going through legality issues in regards to promotional activities biasing men. Disney is no exception. According to the 2014 Park visitor breakdown, the probability of a random selection being female is 33.1 million per 62.3 million which is 52% of total park visitation. This is depicted in the below plot as generated by Tableau.

sex breakdown total population

In terms of the proposed promotion, the spreadsheet below shows the breakdown of guests eligible for the promotion. Based on this data, the probability of a woman being selected for a Grand prize is 250,000 out of 950,000 or 26% which is half of the general probability of female guests specified earlier. This is mainly due to the large number of male pass holders as compared to females. A further categorical breakdown for the prizes going to a female versus male are:



Type of Guest Male Chance of Winning Female Change of Winning Total Chance of Winning
Annual Passholder (.4/.95)         42% (.1/.95)         11% 53%
DVC Owner (.2/.95)         21% (.1/.95)         11% 32%
DVC + Annual Pass (.1/.95)         11% (.05/.95)         5% 16%



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