Lottery Analysis

During the promotion, 3 trips to the Aulani Resort in Hawaii will be given away at random to four of the invited guests. The following winning percentages have been calculated for the different eligibility categories.

  • Annual pass holders only – 53%
  • DVC Owners – 32%
  • Guests with both the above – 16%

Based on the above, any guest holding an annual pass will have a (53+16) 69% chance of winning a trip while DVC members will have a (32+16) 48%.

A couple of unpredictable factors can affect the outcome of the promotion. First is the actual RSVPs that are received for the event. This will change the total population and effect the chances of winning. Secondly is the population representation that responds. These factors can substantially effect the predicted outcomes. As well.

Discrimination will not be an issue for the event as the population is being controlled by membership records for annual passes and vacation club. Only these guests will be invited to enter regardless of demographic including level of membership, age, sex, race or location. There are no other external factors influencing the data.

Disney may consider limiting one Grand prize to each of the categories in the eligible population. This would alter the chances of winning greatly. In the current plan, Annual Pass holders have a better than 50% chance of winning the trips which may appear unfair. The adjusted probabilities of winning are shown in the Table below removing the previous guest type upon winning.

second prize with group exclusion

  • Event A is an Annual Pass holder winning the first draw.
  • Event B is a Disney Vacation Club Owner winning the first draw.
  • Event C is a Disney Vacation Club Owner with an Annual Pass winning the first draw.

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