Bayesian Paradigm

An uncertainty that has not been discussed is the geographical location of the winners. Using the regional data presented earlier, we can utilize a Bayesian paradigm to determine the probability of the region the winner is located in given the category selected. Another interesting analysis is the probabilities of winning by region. We do not know from where a randomly sampled guest from the eligibility pool is from. Using the information from the regional breakdown we can determine the probabilities of grand prize distribution. Knowing the probability of eligible guest winning per region as below:

  • P(NE) – .0737
  • P(NW) – .0232
  • P(SE) – .6368
  • P(SW) – .1926
  • P(C) – .0737

We can calculate the odd of a randomly selected winner being from a particular region as detailed in the following spreadsheet.

baysian regional

The results above show that the most likely winners will be chosen from the South East region which complements the reginal data as the South East is the strongest member location.

 

Reference:

Mostad, Petter. Basic Bayesian Ideas. Retrieved September 13, 2015, from http://www.math.chalmers.se/Stat/Grundutb/GU/MSA100/H08/BayesStatisticsHandouts.pdf

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